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The initial numbers on primary election night were not positive for Republicans.  A challenge with reporting election night results always includes the caveat about how the numbers may change significantly, due to the trickle in effect of late mailed ballots, over the next week.  However, barring an unusual influx of one sided ballots, the results are unlikely to trend more than 4% from where the results currently stand.  The Republicans, for the most part, performed poorly in races for the state legislature. 

There are political tides nationally and locally

There are national tides in politics.  Obama was elected as President and during his presidency, the Republicans experienced a nationwide surge in officeholders at the state house level all the way up to historical increases in political representation in Congress.  At some point, the tide crests.  Then, as predicted by most insiders, the Democrats are likely to have a comeback at some point.  Usually, this is expected during a Republican presidency.

In 2016, three new independant commissioners in Thurston County. (L-R) John Hutchings, Bud Blake, Gary Edwards

There are also local and state political tides that can flow independently from the national trends.  Sometimes Washington State experiences these types of events.  The Republicans in the Washington State house of Representatives started gaining seats in the state legislature in 2006, which was four years before the national trend began.  In 2016 Thurston County swept Democrats out of the Thurston County Commission even when the county voted Hillary Clinton for the President.

With the usual low voter turnout for a summer primary, a very small percentage of voters will make a big difference in state and local elections.  It amazes this author how so many people believe their vote doesn’t count when there is clear evidence that on primary elections their vote counts far more than it ever would during an election for President.

The Democratic Party obviously had enthusiasm on their side and their hatred of Trump is an effective motivator for getting out the vote.  Based on their campaign messages, Trump is in their head.  The Republican Party, on the other hand, seems to have fallen asleep and allowed apathy to be the prevailing attitude of the day.  There were some exceptions to this around the state, but it appears to be a real challenge for the Republicans to motivate their base to vote in the primary and they will need to turn the apathy around by November if they want different results.

Chris Vance is 90% opposed to Republicans

Chris Vance’s “Independent” candidates fare poorly

A few months ago, to great fanfare and with a pile of cash, Chris Vance, former Republican Party State Chair made a big deal out of his departure from the Republican Party because he no longer agreed with “90% of their platform.”  Rather than officially joining the Democratic Party, he joined former Democrat Congressman Brian Baird and formed “Washington Independents”  Vance was also a former King County Councilmember, former state legislator, and recent recipient of 41% of the vote in his half-hearted campaign against Democrat Senator Patty Murray in 2016.  At the Roanoke Conference in Ocean Shores earlier this year, the greatest accomplishment for which Trump was publicly thanked was to finally convince Vance to leave the Republican Party in Washington State.

Chris Vance has lost a lot of credibility for the people who actually tried to help him in the past (photo source Truthfeed)

Vance, who spends most of his time attacking Trump and the Republican Party, then proceeded to recruit and marginally help fund a handful of candidates for public office around the state.  Most of them, like Marco Padilla in the 26th LD and Ned Witting in the 25th were bounced out of their races by wide margins last night barely registering in the low single digits with voters.  However,  one sponsored candidate – Ann Diamond in the 12th LD (Chelan/Wenatchee) survived to make top two in the primary.  She will likely get Democratic Party support in the general, so she will be Vance’s only chance at political relevance taking on the Republican nominee Keith Goehner in the general.  Diamond will have an uphill battle in this Republican district to prevail, even with full Democratic Party support.

Ann Diamond – Chris Vance’s one successful candidate in the 12th LD against Republicans. She will primarily get Democratic Party support (photo source Facebook)

As a result of this lackluster performance by Vance’s “Independent” candidate effort, he seems likely to proceed down the path to even further irrelevance.  Democrats are in a civil war over how Leftist and #woke their candidates must be – they generally are not going to line up behind milquetoast “Establishment” style Democrats posing as “Independents.”  Republicans are unlikely to cross over in any significant numbers to abandon their candidates for a lukewarm version.  This is always the challenge faced by third parties who attempt to tread some imaginary middle ground.  Voters of both parties and independents alike, based on their voting patterns, seem to want clear choices in elections.  This might seem to be polarizing but it also does not demonstrate any viability with the Chris Vance political model.

Weak Republican results in Strong Republican Districts

The initial results in a variety of districts around the state – largely considered Republican leaning, but showing Republican weakness last night should be motivating some serious soul searching and galvanizing Republican efforts around the state.  Here is a review of a few of these races (please note direct links to election results will change as more late mail-in votes are counted):

  • In the 42nd District (north Whatcom) the Republicans hold both house seats and the
    Senator Doug Erickson (42nd LD)

    Senate seat here. While historic elections have trended more Republican for many years since the last Democrat Representative from this district (Kelli Linville) lost her seat in 2010, the margins of victory have been growing.  Although it still appears reasonable to expect the Republicans will win all three seats, the local Republicans have good cause to be concerned.  This district is impacted by national Democratic Party anti-Trump sentiment which invites out of state cash to fund a campaign against incumbent Republican State Senator Erickson who is closely aligned with the Trump Administration and who was appointed by the Trump administration to work for the EPA.  State Senator Erickson had the worst returns election night at 45.8% at first count, Representative Vincent Buys had 47.49%, and Representative Luanne VanWerven had 44.14% (VanWerven had a Republican challenger in the Primary who took 5.11%, but most observers expect those votes to shift to VanWerven in the General, which makes her the strongest looking Republican this cycle in this district).

    Rep Dave Hayes – (10th LD)
  • In the 10th District (Island County) the Republicans hold both house seats and the Senate seat. Historic elections in this district have trended more Republican since the last Democrat, Mary Margaret Haugen was soundly defeated by Barbara Bailey in 2012.  Only the two house seats are up for election this year.  Again, although it still appears reasonable to expect the Republicans to prevail based on historical voting trends, the local Republican party should be very concerned and highly motivated to get out the vote.   On election night, Representative David Hayes had 46.51% and Representative Norma Smith had 48.73%.
  • In the 6th District (suburban Spokane) the Republicans hold both house seats and the Senate seat. The departure of former State Senator Michael Baumgartner has led to a game of political musical chairs in this district which has provided an opportunity for the Democrats to challenge these seats.  This Republicans are also challenged in this district because of the National Democratic Party’s focus on attempting to remove
    Rep Jeff Holy (6th LD) candidate for state Senate

    Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rogers and the national cash flowing into this district has funded a better than normal ground game for the Democrats.  There hasn’t been a Democrat in one of these seats since Representative John Ahern beat John Driscoll in 2010 in a very competitive race.  On election night, Representative Jeff Holy running for state senate received 48.99% of the vote.  This was a poor showing considering the exceptionally unqualified candidate Jesse Lewis who is running against him.  Republican Rep Mike Volz received a poor 46.92% showing election night.  In a four-way run-off Republican newcomer Jenny Graham garnered 30.55% to qualify for the general in the open seat.  When combined with the other Republican candidate, this still only equals 45.99% Republican votes in this district election night.  The Republicans in this district also suffer from an intramural party food fight led by local Republican sheriff Ozzie Knezovich who often uses press conferences and interviews with the local Left leaning media to attack fellow Republicans.  It is a weird and self-destructive dynamic to observe.

    Representative Liz Pike’s retirement has made another seat competitive in the 18th Legislative District
  • In the 18th Legislative District (Southwest Washington – Camas), the Republicans occupy all seats. Only the two legislative seats are up this cycle.  The recent retirement of Republican Liz Pike opened up a seat, and both seats had poor results for the Republicans.  Incumbent Representative Brandon Vick received 50.58% election night, which is a “win” but a far cry from his 63% victory two years ago.  The open seat had Republican Larry Hoff only receive 46.49% election night, which also casts shadows on this normally Republican district in the general election.  The Clark County Republican Party has been in an impressively dysfunctional internal fight for many years now, and this useless infighting tends to sap energy from effective campaigning.  The recent $84k settlement with the AG over campaign finance violations hasn’t helped the local Republican Party be more effective either.

    Representative Melanie Stambaugh’s retirement in the 25th LD opened up another competitive seat this year
  • The 25th Legislative District (Puyallup) has trended more Republican in recent years, and currently all seats are held by Republicans. However, the two legislative seats are open due to the unfortunate retirement of Melanie Stambaugh and Joyce McDonald from the legislature at the same time.  The senate seat in this district is not scheduled to be on the ballot until 2020.  In a four-way run-off Republican newcomer Kelly Chambers leads the pack with 35.46% election night.  When combined with the other Republican candidate numbers, this still only equals 46.7%, which is not a great showing.  In the other contested seat, Republican Chris Gildon received 45.87%.  Both seats are going to be political slugfests going into the general election cycle in November.

Disappointing Republican results in other districts

Representative Vicki Kraft is in a real political fight to hold her seat in the 17th Legislative District
  • In the 17th Legislative District (just outside Vancouver), the Republican candidates also showed unusual weakness. Incumbent Representative Paul Harris was able to post positive numbers election night of 54.25% which is weak for him historically, but probably indicates a successful November.  Fellow incumbent legislator Vicki Kraft received 48.51% in a three way runoff, which indicates a brutal race down to the wire in November.  This is another district where Republicans are plagued by the crazy, self-destructive infighting in the Clark County Republican Party as mentioned above.  Democrats last held a seat in this district in 2014, when Lynda Wilson bounced Monica Stonier from office in a brutal, expensive campaign.  Stonier then moved to the 49th Legislative District in downtown Vancouver, where it was easier for a Democrat to get elected.

    Democrat Senator Tim Sheldon (35th LD) caucuses with the Republicans in the Senate
  • In the 35th Legislative District (Mason County, western Thurston County), two Republicans occupy both legislative seats and Democrat Tim Sheldon holds the Senate seat (Sheldon caucuses with the Republicans in the Senate). This district has trended more Republican over the past few years.  Representative Dan Griffey received 51.59% which is lower than he probably wanted to see, but he is well experienced with tough campaigns and has prevailed with much tougher odds in the recent past.  Representative Drew MacEwen had disappointing results election night of 48.3% of the vote, and is probably a bit more concerned.  Senator Sheldon received 35.01% of the vote in a five candidate runoff, but when combined with the likely Republican votes he would probably receive in the General – his numbers look better at 61.13%. 
  • In the 44th Legislative District (Lake Stevens) – This district has been contested for
    Rep Mark Harmsworth (LD 44) faces a tough reelection

    many election cycles now sending both Democrats and Republicans to Olympia. Incumbent Republican Mark Harmsworth posted poor election night numbers of 45.08%.  This is particularly poor considering his final election results of 54.55% in 2016 and 53.35% in 2014.  Harmsworth understands tough political campaigns in this district, so he is likely to ramp up his political game for the general, but it will be a fight for sure.  Democrat incumbent Representative John Lovick had a strong showing of 58.74% election night which will make challenger Jeff Sax’s ability to fundraise more challenging heading into the general election.  This was a seat the Republicans hoped to pick up.  Additionally, incumbent Democrat Senator Steve Hobbs posted a respectable 56.95% election night in a three way runoff with very impressive Republican candidate Doug Roulstone posting a disappointing 39.61%.

    Republican challenger Jodi Wilke (24th LD)
  • In the 24th Legislative District (North Olympic Peninsula) – This district is occupied by Democrats in all three seats, but has long been viewed by political insiders as potential Republican pickups over the past two cycles. This year only the two legislative seats were up for election.  The two Republican challengers Jodi Wilke and Jim McEntire posted results of 38.55% and 40.03% respectively.  Depending on how the later counted votes trend, this district may not receive as much Republican attention and funding leading up to the general election as originally anticipated.
  • In the 26th Legislative District (Western Pierce,
    Representative Michelle Caldier (26th LD)

    Bremerton, Gig Harbor) – This district has been a battleground district for years as the Republicans have proceeded to capture all three seats. The sudden retirement of Senator Jan Angel led to an open seat in the state senate.  Republican senate candidate Marty McClendon posted election night results of 45% in a three way runoff.  Republican legislator Jesse Young posted election night results of 40.53% in a three way runoff.  When combined with the losing Republican challengers numbers, he has 49.44% to work with.  This race will be brutal and expensive heading into the general.  Republican Michelle Caldier in a four way runoff posted 33.72% election night, which ensures her

    Representative Jesse Young (26th LD)

    place on the general ballot.  When combined with the losing Republican challenger, she has numbers of 51.45% which still means a tough election battle through November.  This district has been plagued by some unusually bitter infighting with Republican challengers to both incumbents.  Republicans will have to bury their intramural fights and work together to hold this district.  If they don’t, they may hand this conservative trending district back to the Democrats merely because of Republican infighting.

    Chad Magendanz (5th LD)
  • In the 5th Legislative District (Issaquah, Eastern King County) – This district has been a battleground for Republicans for many years now. The Senate seat is held by Democrat Mark Mullet after the Democrat Governor Christine Gregoire bribed former Republican Senator Cheryl Pflug in 2012 with a seat on the Growth Management Hearings Board in exchange for retiring from the race too late for the Republicans to recruit a serious challenger.  This year only the two house seats are on the ballot.  Incumbent Republican Paul Graves posted a disappointing 45.67% election night, and Republican challenger (and former 5th District legislator) Chad Magendanz posted a disappointing 46.36%.  Clearly this district will continue to be a political battleground all the way to the general election in November

    Representative David Taylor (15th LD)
  • In the 15th Legislative District (Yakima County), this district will remain in Republican control, but an intramural fight within the Republican Party has resulted in poor results for the Republican caucus and for everyone who values freedom. In a five way primary runoff for the house seat, longtime Republican incumbent David Taylor appears to have missed surviving the primary results with a disappointing election night return of 20.42%.  This result is partly due to a longtime well-known grudge against Representative Taylor by nearby Republican Senator Curtis King (LD-14) who has repeatedly recruited candidates to
    Senator Curtis King (14th LD)

    run against Taylor.  Baring an unusual shift in ballot returns over the next few days, it looks like King succeeded with former Democrat and recently converted Republican Jeremie Dufault who will beat Democrat candidate AJ Cooper in the fall.  Representative Taylor was one of the most knowledgeable legislators of either party in Olympia when it came to land use, property rights, planning, and how the hodgepodge of land use laws functioned in Washington State.  Losing him from the legislature eliminates a desperately needed knowledgeable, freedom-oriented voice in the legislature.  Senator King didn’t like Taylor’s criticism of King’s various gas tax proposals and King’s endless campaign to increase the tax burden on Washington State citizens.  This is yet again another example of how Republican intramural fighting will help the Democratic Party agenda of higher taxes next year.

    Senator Keith Wagoner (39th LD)
  • In the 39th Legislative District (Skagit and Snohomish County), which is a strong Republican district, the sudden retirement of Republican House Chair Dan Kristiansen led to a scramble of candidates to replace him. There was also a strong intramural Republican primary for the senate seat.  Democrats seem unlikely to pick up a seat in this district, but they will certainly be making the attempt in an unusual year like this.  Incumbent Republican Senator Keith Wagoner appears to have survived a four way primary and a strong challenge from former state legislator Elizabeth Scott to advance to the general in November.  Wagoner
    Robert Sutherland (39th LD)

    received 29.07% of the vote election night and Scott received 25.78% of the vote with about 500 votes separating them.  Unless the vote trends aggressively towards Scott over the next few days, it looks like Wagoner will face off with Democrat challenger Claus Joens who received 40.47% of the vote. Wagoner appears well positioned to prevail in this race as the combined Republican vote is close to 55% for this position.  In a three way primary for the open seat in the legislature, it looks like Republican Robert Sutherland (38.44% of the vote) will advance to face off against Democrat Ivan Lewis who received 48.39% of the vote.  While the combined Republican vote for this seat is also over 50%, this will still be a serious knock-down race with some bad Republican feelings stemming from an unnecessarily ugly fight between the Republican candidates at the end of the cycle.  Incumbent Republican legislator Carolyn Eslick received 52.33% of the vote, which would normally be concerning, but compared to the rest of the results, this bodes well for her in November.

    Representative Jim Walsh (19th LD)
  • In the 19th Legislative District (Southwest Washington), this district has started to trend more conservative over the past few elections including the 2016 election of a Republican to the legislature for the first time since World War II. However, incumbent Republican legislator Jim Walsh has his work cut out for him with a 48.43% showing election night.  His Democrat challenger Erin Fraser received 51.57% of the vote after an unusual amount of out of state funding being directed into this district.  Incumbent Democrat legislator Brian Blake coasted through a three way primary with 60.02%.  Blake will be facing off against Republican challenger Joel McEntire who received 21.38% of the vote and has spent most of the campaign season deployed to Kuwait.  Blake has strong pro-gun and pro-property rights leaning which is how he has survived as a Democrat in a district which voted for Trump in 2016, but this race will be one to watch regardless this November.

    Candidate Maia Espinoza (28th LD)
  • In the 28th Legislative District (Southwest Pierce County), the district is split with a Republican Senator and Legislator and a Democrat legislator. Only the legislative seats are on the ballot in 2018.  Republican incumbent Dick Muri received a disappointing 47.01% of the vote election night.  Democrat incumbent Christine Kilduff received a strong 59.19% while strong Republican challenger Maia Espinoza registered a disappointing 40.81%.  This district has experienced many close races in the past, and it remains a battleground in 2018, with both parties likely to flood the district with campaign cash.

    Rep. Mark Hargrove (47th LD)
  • In the 47th Legislative District (Eastern Kent), this is another district split by Republicans and Democrats. The Republicans hold the Senate seat and one legislative seat and the Democrats control one legislative seat.  Republican incumbent Joe Fain appears likely to prevail in November with 54.29%Incumbent Republican Mark Hargrove received a disappointing 49.82% against two challengers.  Incumbent Democrat legislator Pat Sullivan received a healthy 57.89% against two Republican challengers.
  • In the 30th Legislative District (Federal Way), this is another split district with a Republican state senator (Mark Milocia) and two legislative seats in Democratic Party hands. This was a district where Democrats were
    Senator Mark Miloscia (30th LD)

    able to successfully challenge two Republican incumbents in 2016, but which has been a battleground site for several years now.  Senator Miloscia received a disappointing 48.43% in a three way battle.  Incumbent Democrat legislator Mike Pellicciotti coasted through primary night with 58.34%, against Republican challenger Linda Kochmar who posted 41.66%Incumbent Democrat Kristine Reeves posted a solid 62.55% against Republican challenger Mark Greene at 37.45%.  This will be another district hotly contested through November with the focus probably being on the Senate seat.

There are more local election results worth reviewing in a separate article.  With low participation levels and an average of 25% of the potential votes counted across the state, this is another good reminder for voters about how a very small percentage of active voters in each district can have a disproportionate impact.  The general election will probably have a higher voter turnout than the 54.16% seen in 2014, and it will be far higher than the results we witnessed last night.

Once again my thesis that the future belongs to those who show up is strongly supported by these results.  25% of the voters in each district have produced these results, and obviously more of them were Democrats motivated to vote by last night.  The rest of the voters couldn’t bother to fill out a piece of paper and mail it (without even needing a stamp now).  Apathy is the ultimate enemy of freedom, and it took a lot of apathetic Republican and independant voters to produce last night’s results.

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OUR CONSTITUTION BEGINS WITH THE PHRASE “WE THE PEOPLE.”  IT WAS THE FOUNDER’S INTENT THAT GOVERNMENT BE CREATED BY THE PEOPLE, TO SERVE THE PEOPLE.  IT WASN’T THEIR INTENTION FOR THE PEOPLE TO SERVE THE GOVERNMENT.  IT WAS ALWAYS INTENDED THAT GOVERNMENT WHICH FAILED TO SERVE THE PEOPLE SHOULD BE “ALTERED OR ABOLISHED.”  UNTIL WE RETURN TO THE FOUNDER’S INTENT, WE REMAIN WE THE GOVERNED

Background articles:

Washington State Independents (Chris Vance project)

Washington State Wire – Aug 8, 2018 – “Hose Dems could be heading to a historic 73 vote majority”

 

4 COMMENTS

  1. Really was sad to read about Rep. Taylor in the 15th district. I’ve watched him before in hearings on TVW and he’s great and a real fighter for us.

    • It is very disappointing to lose his expertise in the legislature and a legislator with his tenacity for fighting for freedom during the legislative session. It is particularly disturbing that he was bounced out by a fellow Republicans who want higher taxes and nobody to challenge them. While the Democratic Party has defined itself as the party cheering to take as much resources from people as possible, there are a few Republicans who have joined in that scam and they don’t want their fellow legislators like Taylor to point it out.

  2. Conservative voters of Washington, please vote in EVERY election and remind your friends to turn in their ballots. I send a friendly reminder to my circle of friends a couple days before they’re due to help avoid “forgetting”. I was born in this state and have chose to stay here but do not want to see it politically turn into the “New California” of liberal, expensive, government-knows-best, policies. Lastly, thanks, Glen, for fighting the good fight and keeping us informed!

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