Democratic Party becoming politically toxic in Southwest Washington State

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In Southwest Washington State, the Democratic Party controlled all levers of political power for many decades.  Places like Pacific County, Grays Harbor County, Wahkiakum County, and Cowlitz County were strongholds for the Democratic Party since the 1930s.  Times are changing.

This part of Washington State is culturally conservative, rural, and has been economically depressed since the days of the Spotted Owl wars in the late 1980s largely destroyed the timber industry and the local economies which depended on it.  The state’s Growth Management Act and other Seattle-centric regulations began to further harm local communities as the bureaucrats and enforcers infected this part of the state.  Private sector union and nonunion work alike became scarce and what remained has been under constant irrational attack by Seattle based Gang Green interests.

The local Democratic Party thrived on the inertia left from the New Deal era and the family  generational loyalty to the party which was founded on that history.  That party loyalty is vanishing now as the Democratic Party morphs into something past generations wouldn’t recognize.

Although political warning signs were apparent years earlier, the trend accelerated with the election of Republican Wes Cormier as Grays Harbor Commissioner in 2012.  His election led to the first majority Republican control of the Grays Harbor Commission since the 1930s.  This seemed like a fluke to many, and the local Democratic Party leadership marinated in denial, but this trend can’t be wished away.  Let’s review some more specific examples.  A handful of these might be aberrations, but the macro trend is obvious to those willing to look closer:

2012: 

• In Cowlitz County – Republican Dennis Weber beats Democrat opponent for county commission seat.
• In Wahkiakum County – Both Commissioner seats were won by Independents – one of them beating the only identified Democrat in the race. Independents control a majority of the County Commission seats.

2014:

• In Grays Harbor County – neither Commissioner candidate on the ballot identified as a Democrat. Independent Commissioner Vickie Raines is elected, which, when combined with Commissioner Cormier, means a majority of the Commissioners in this county continue the Democrat Party shutout.
• In Pacific County – Prosecuting Attorney Mark McClain claims no party affiliation and soundly defeats Incumbent Democrat David Burke.
• In Wahkiakum County – Both Sheriff candidates and both Assessor candidates run with no official party affiliation.

2016:

• James Walsh becomes the first Republican to be elected from the 19^th Legislative District (SW Washington) in living memory. Democrats are shocked.
• Arne Mortenson becomes the second Republican elected to the Cowlitz County Commission, giving the Republicans the majority in this county for the first time in many years. Lone Republican incumbent Commissioner Dennis Weber is easily reelected on the same ballot.  Cowlitz County votes Trump.
• In Pacific County Lisa Olsen becomes the first Republican elected to the County Commission in many decades. Pacific County also votes for Trump.
• Wahkiakum County re-elects two independent county commissioners – beating back a Democratic Party challenger for one seat, and the county votes for Trump.

  

• Grays Harbor County re-elects Republican Wes Cormier with over 55% of the vote despite a harsh attack from the Democratic Party. The voters also eject long-time Democratic Party incumbent Commissioner Frank Gordon and replace him with Independent Randy Ross who received over 65% of the vote.  Frank Gordon did himself no favors getting caught on camera, in his suit, between Commissioner meetings stealing Ross’s campaign signs.  There are no Democrats left on the County Commission after this election– the first time since the 1930s.  Additionally, Trump wins this county.
• Failed Democrat legislative candidate Teresa Purcell (19^th LD) is sued by the Washington State Attorney General for campaign finance violations based on complaint filed by this author (see article here)

2017: 

• Democratic Party launches aggressive effort to remove Republicans from Longview City Council races in Cowlitz County – Democrats fail. Independents and Republicans remain on the city council.
• Pacific County Democratic Party dissolves political action committee in an illegal effort to avoid transparency and liability for campaign finance violations caused by leadership. All financial assets are transferred to Washington State Democratic Party (see article here)
• Wahkiakum County Democrats, Grays Harbor County Democrats, Cowlitz County Democrats, and 19^th LD Democrats are all caught breaking Washington State’s campaign finance laws. This author files campaign finance complaints (linked here, here, here, and here)

2018:

• In Wahkiakum County no Democrats file to run for County Auditor, Assessor, or Sheriff positions. All positions will be held by Independents as the only options on the ballot.
• In Pacific County – the incumbent Assessor candidate no longer identifies as Democrat even though he is unopposed on the ballot.  In a three-way runoff for County Prosecutor, no Democrats filed to run for office.  In another three-way runoff for County Commissioner, two independent candidates squeeze out the sole Democrat out in the primary.  Because of Washington State’s top two primary  system the general election in November will have no Democrat on the ballot for County Commissioner.  This means, regardless who wins the Commissioner seat – just like Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Wahkiakum, and Thurston County – this county will no longer be controlled by a Democrat County Commission
• In Cowlitz County – the Prosecuting Attorney, Auditor and Assessor are all Independents running unopposed. The Commissioner seat is a contest between an Independent and Republican.  The incumbent Democrats in the Sheriff and Treasurers seats are fending off competitive challenges from Republicans.

  

• In Grays Harbor County – the Democrats failed to challenge the incumbent Independent Commissioner, which will extend the years the Democratic Party remains in the political wilderness. A Republican, Joe MacLean, leads the vote count in the primary for County Auditor against two Democrats (including the incumbent).  The incumbent sheriff quietly no longer identifies as Democrat changing to Independent.
• Incumbent Republican legislator Jim Walsh leads the vote count in this district despite a massive out-of-state advertising blitz on behalf of the Democratic Party’s chosen challenger. Meanwhile the 2016 failed Democratic Party challenger for this position – Teresa Purcell – admitted her guilt for violating Washington State’s campaign finance laws and settles her 18-month Attorney General lawsuit for $22k.

This trend doesn’t mean the Democratic Party is abandoning this part of Washington State.   In fact, most political insiders believe that the Democratic Party will pour massive resources into the local effort against both Incumbent Republican legislator Jim Walsh (19^th LD) and against Incumbent Republican Congresswoman Jamie Herrera Butler (3^rd CD).  The Democrats might still enjoy a few local successes; however, this appears to be their final gasp at salvaging a damaged brand in a part of the state where the Democratic Party long ago stopped caring about the local community.  They took the voters for granted and implemented unpopular high-tax, abusive over-regulation, and out-of-step Seattle-centric agendas.

Just because the Democratic Party may be suffering in this part of the state, this doesn’t mean the Republicans always get the political benefit.  While elected officials and candidates are abandoning the Democratic Party label – as are voters – many of the newly elected officials are running as independents – or they are now identifying as “no party affiliation.”  This is similar to the local elections in nearby Thurston and Mason County.  The local Republican Party seems surprised at the changing political winds and a bit unprepared to fill the political vacuum – as though voters might change their minds if the Republicans clearly differentiate themselves.    However, like nature, political leadership abhors a vacuum and the Republicans have a generational opportunity to demonstrate that their policies are more in sync with this community than the Seattle-centric programs pushed by the Democrats.  Over the next few election cycles, we will see if the Republicans can shake their shock and surprise to fill the void.

There are lessons to be learned here – for any political party

First, no matter how long one party has dominated a city or region – their hold is not certain or forever.  Votes still must be earned.  People and communities change.  For example, New York City hadn’t elected a Republican as mayor since the 1960s, but Democrat Mayor Dinkins was so incompetent and dysfunctional that Republican Rudy Giuliani was elected in 1993 in this bluest of blue cities.

Secondly, when one political party starts to take the local voters for granted and implements policies obviously destructive to those communities and out-of-touch with their constituents, there will be a backlash.

Finally, this backlash is unlikely to be instant, it can be delayed by political inertia, habitual loyalty, and human nature.  It may even take years to manifest itself.  However, when it does, it is very hard to reverse the tide – no matter how much money gets thrown at the problem.  In Southwest Washington the Democrats might claw back to political relevance, but it won’t be easy and for now, their political brand has little to offer the residents of Southwest Washington.

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Background articles:

The Daily World – Jan 10, 2017 – “County Commissioner Wes Cormier remembers Herb Welch”

The Daily Chronicle – November 21, 2016- “How did a Republican win in the 19th District? There are many possible reasons”

Failed Democratic candidate Teresa Purcell settles AG lawsuit for $22k, admits law breaking

Failed Democrat candidate Purcell fights Washington Attorney General, claims campaign finance laws are illegal

Chinook Observer – June 5, 2018 – “Purcell fined for campaign finance violations”

Longview Daily News – June 2, 2018 – “Purcell settles campaign finance complaints”

Longview Daily News – June 17, 2017 – “Teresa Purcell facing new campaign complaint, still fighting older one”

December 19, 2016 -AG lawsuit against Theresa Purcell (Thurston Superior Court #16-2-04959-34)

Purcell – 4th Amended AG Complaint – May 25 -2018 (Thurston Superior Court #16-2-04959-34)

Purcell Stipulation and Agreed Judgment – June 1, 2018 (Thurston Superior Court #16-2-04959-34)